2024 Author: Jasmine Walkman | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 08:29
Chocolate is one of the most consumed products in the world. This sweet transgression is so delicious that many of us cannot live without it. It is known that chocolate is made from cocoa. But due to climate change and rising ground temperatures, experts warn that complications with cocoa cultivation are possible. It is believed that the raw material may become a rarity.
Of course, this news worried millions of lovers of cocoa temptations. But is this threat real?
According to the German newspaper Tagesschau, it has been said for years that the cocoa plant is threatened by global warming. The first warnings that a decline in cocoa production was expected came five years ago, after it became clear that in one of the main producer countries - Ghana - the harvest was extremely poor.
The planned production was 1 million tons of cocoa, but instead, in 2015. the harvest was 30% less than expected (or 700,000 tons). Experts say the main reason is climate change. In 2015 in Ghana, the weather was very erratic - either it rained too much or it didn't rain at all. Higher temperatures were also recorded.
Of course, this had a serious impact on the price of cocoa, as in 2015. its value rose sharply.
The erratic weather has an adverse effect on the cocoa trees. Less rainfall suggests a poorer harvest. And with more heavy rain, there is a danger of mold and pests.
The information is from the Cocoa Research Institute in Ghana. Experts warn that if the volatile trend continues, there will come a time when cocoa trees will not be able to be grown in Ghana.
Climate change is affecting all crops around the world. Back in 2011. The UN has warned that farmers must learn to cope with the new conditions. The organization argues that growers need to take more care of their crops, otherwise their future is in jeopardy.
Recent studies by the International Center for Tropical Crops (CIAT) show that in 30 years, 90% of the current agricultural land in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire will not be usable.
According to the economic portal Bloomberg, in 10 years (in 2030) there will be 2 million tons worldwide cocoa deficiencythat is, global demand will not be met.
Of course, this news alarmed lovers of chocolate and chocolate products, as Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire produce 60% of the world's cocoa.
The drastic decline in West African production is reaching alarming proportions. It is believed that cocoa grown in Indonesia, Ecuador and Brazil will not be enough to meet the needs.
The optimal conditions for growing cocoa are high humidity, rainfall and high temperatures. That is, the areas around the equator have perfect weather conditions. But experts are worried because the Earth's temperature is rising by about a degree each year, and this could seriously disrupt conditions.
Cocoa plants face another challenge - CSSD (Cacao Swollen Shoot Disease). The virus has infected hundreds of thousands of trees, most notably in Ghana (16% of crops).
This means that the country will not be able to meet its supply commitments on the world market. The problem is that the trees show no symptoms for the first one to three years. That is, once it is clear that the cocoa tree is sick, it may be too late.
Côte d'Ivoire is the largest producer of cocoa in the world, with over 1.6 million tons. Manufacturers are trying to limit the spread of the disease.
The price of cocoa increased by nearly 30% in just one year, and currently 1 ton is traded on the exchanges for 2,371 euros. During the great crisis in 2015, prices reached nearly 2,800 euros. Such shocks in cocoa markets are not uncommon, as cocoa production depends not only on climatic conditions but also on geopolitical risks.
Experts say that demand for chocolate products it grows every year, in direct proportion to the increase in the world's population. Therefore, it is not yet possible to give a definite answer to the question of whether there will be a collapse in cocoa production and whether the chocolate will run out soon.
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